Good and Bad Years of Modern Prog

One day while checking out a band on the Prog Archives web site, I noticed that their top-rated album was from the year 2000. “That’s the same year as Spock’s Beard’s V and Symphony X’s V: the New Mythology Suite,” I thought. Both those albums have very high ratings. The next two bands I checked out after that also had very highly rated albums in the year 2000. Was there something about that year that was special for prog bands? I decided to make a list of bands and check out how their ratings matched up over the course of the last 25 years.

First, I established some criteria for who and what would be on the list. The bands I had noticed with high ratings in the year 2000 had all begun their recording career in the 90’s. So I decided to limit my list to bands that had released albums from the 90’s and onward. There are two exceptions: Dream Theater, whose second album was their first release of the 90’s; and Pendragon, who are actually a much older band but whose third release was their first of the 90’s. I was tempted to include other bands like Fates Warning, IQ, and Ozric Tentacles; however, all those bands had already released at least a few albums in the 80’s. I wanted to focus mostly on bands that had emerged in the early 90’s in time for the prog revival.

I made a list of over 25 bands and for the graph I prepared, I trimmed the list down to 20. Here are the bands included:

Anekdoten, Dream Theater, Pain of Salvation, The Flower Kings, Spock’s Beard, Arena, Jadis, Pendragon, Enchant, Echolyn, Threshold, White Willow, Opeth, Evergrey, Porcupine Tree, Symphony X, Ayreon, Galahad, Anathema, Glass Hammer

For the graph, I used the ratings from Prog Archives. The Y axis begins at ratings of 1.00 and goes to 5.00, which is the highest possible rating. Each square represents a rating value of 0.2. Although in any one year albums received a range of rating scores, in some cases two albums scored the same or very near the same score. In such cases I squeezed two black dots close together. Lines were drawn from the band name to their oldest album and then the rating dots of each subsequent album’s score were connected by the same line. Lines between different bands’ trajectories often intersect.

As I prepared the graph, a very clear wave began to emerge. But as later bands were added, some of the troughs were covered as one band achieved a highly-rated album in an otherwise slump year. Conversely, during some peak years, other bands managed to score very poorly on their release. At the end, in 2014, we see Evergrey achieving a very high rating for their latest release. Since gathering the ratings, this score has come down as more people gave scores of 4 stars instead of five.

My graph of ratings of albums between 1990 and 2014 on the Prog Archives web site.

My graph of ratings of albums between 1990 and 2014 on the Prog Archives web site.

What we can see is that Echolyn and Dream Theater scored very highly in 1992. The scores then drop a little until we reach the period from 1999 to 2002, where 12 albums scored over 4.10, the most albums to score this high in such a short time frame. After that, 2003 sees no band scoring over 4.00, 2004 goes up again but then the scores drop except for an album in 2005 and one in 2007 that scored well. The year 2006 saw only 6 albums released and none scoring over 4.00. Eight albums were released in 2007 but only three in 2008 and three in 2009 and four in 2010. These three years seem to have been difficult years for our 20 bands. Indeed in the latter half of the 2000’s several bands released no album for a space of three to five years, and some even longer. But from 2012 and on we see more albums over a rating of 4.00.

Coloured to better illustrate the wave effect

Coloured to better illustrate the wave effect

I decided to colour in the general flow, omitting any albums whose rating was more than 0.10 lower than the next score above (I missed one in 2009, accidentally including the lowest rated album). The light green makes it easier to see the flow, the rise and fall of album ratings.

Does this suggest that some years were better for progressive rock than others? Is this just the result from Prog Archives? Would other sites for rating albums produce a similar or different result? Is this an indication that progressive rock was more “progressive” during the 1999 to 2002 period than in other years and has recently become more progressive again, or was there some other reason that influenced the ratings?

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